Wow, nice analysis. I think I could only add a couple caveats or additional observations. Sanctions aren't crippling yet, but could be. Oil and gas trade to China and India isn't new, and the pipelines and contracts already in place. But oil and gas is all traded through US dollars and banking system. The US thus could turn off this source of payment, which would badly cripple Europe like it did to North Korea and Ira, where more full sanctions are. North Korea has bene turned into a basket backwoods, but won't push the world into instability if it collapses. Sorry to say for the average North Korean, but the sad truth is their economy and presence on the world stage just doesn't matter and amounts to a colorful circus act (though dangerous one).

Russia on the other hand is a different story, and the West can allow Russia to collapse. The oil and gas is too critical, as are the minerals and metals, which is why the US and EU set a $60 price cap instead of a ban. The one oligarch in charge of the key materials needed for electronics still has no sanction on him. There is of course the economic collapse, would create a new wave of immigrants into the EU, which is also unwanted. And $60 price cap might appear low, but Russian oil and gas is one of the lowest price of production next to Saudi, at $11-$15 dollars versus the high-priced offshore stuff in the Gulf of Mexico or other offshore west African countries. China is effectively building over two new $25 billion dollars of LNG gas from the US in long term contracts, and know the importance of the US-EU markets compared to Russia.

Of course the US and Eu look like they have nothing on their shelf to offer, but after over $80 billion of US money promised to Ukraine already, clearly that is deliberate misinformation they feed the media--they don't want Russia to know what where and when things are being supplied. I'm still rooting for Ukraine, and the war has resulted in making Putin an evil pariah on par with Kim and Khamenei.